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CROP AND WEATHER REPORT
For the Monthly Report Ending May 15, 2025
GENERAL COMMENTS & WEATHER: Greetings and welcome to another cropping season! We “hit the ground running” this year. In fact, this might be the earliest that corn AND soybean planting have been finished, as it was pretty much done by Mother’s Day. After a relatively mild winter, the soil conditions have been nearly perfect this spring. Despite the dry conditions last summer through harvest, there was just enough moisture before freeze-up to help replenish moisture in the topsoil. It was also cold enough with no snow-cover this past winter to allow the frost to go deep into the soil profile, which helps break up compaction and helps the soil to be so mellow.
The biggest themes this spring has been the wind, the cool soil temperatures in April, and the relatively dry conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has indicated that this is one of the windiest start to spring in 50 years. Fortunately, the soil conditions have been such that there really has not been any noticeable soil erosion at this point. One other observation is that despite the good soil conditions, the soil temperatures remained below 50 degrees for the most part until after April 20th, which caused some farmers to wait until after that to start planting, while other farmers were done planting everything by the end of April. Air temperatures were cool in April and warmed up here in May, with some record heat earlier this week. It literally seem to turn from early spring to summer overnight. Typical spring weather in Southwestern Minnesota (SWMN) with temperatures ranging from about 30 to 90 degrees. If there are any concerns about the weather this spring, it has been that it has been relatively dry. NOAA has SWMN rated as abnormally dry. Referring to the rainfall table at the end of this report, many areas had less than half of the moisture that they received during the same timeframe in 2024. Fortunately, we are receiving some rainfall as we are publishing this report and more in the forecast into next week.
Figure 1 – This is a corn planter rolling through a field near Okabena on April 23rd. Soil conditions were excellent this spring.
CORN: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Prospective Planting Report, released at the end of March, indicated that producers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in the U.S. in 2025, which is up 4.73 million from last year. It is the fourth highest intended corn acres in March, but still well below the record of 97.3 million in March 2012. In the monthly USDA Supply and Demand Report released on May 12th, the U.S. corn crop is estimated to be 15.82 billion bushels, which would be an increase of nearly 1 billion bushels from last year. The increase in acreage and production will put downward pressure on corn prices in 2025 into 2026.
As of May 11th, about 62% of the projected corn acres in the U.S. were planted. This is up 15% more than last year and 6% above the 5-year average. All of the corn on the farms we manage was planted between April 12th and 30th. Most of the corn has emerged in our area and plant populations are excellent. There was a short/heavy rain event with some hail that occurred in SWMN on April 28th. Because of this, there were a few fields that needed to be rotary-hoed in order to break up the crust on the soil. With the recent 90-degree temperatures, the corn has continue to develop and some weeds have also started to emerge. It will be important for the timing herbicide applications, side-dressing nitrogen, and rock picking in the corn in the coming weeks with the rapid plant development.
Figure 2 – Here is a rotary hoe going through a field on May 8th. Emergence was excellent for the most part. However, a few fields that were planted the week of April 20th and received a heavy shot of rain/hail on April 28th had some crusting of the topsoil and created some uneven emergence for a few cornfields. A gentle rain or a rotary hoe can help alleviate that crust and help with emergence.
SOYBEANS: The USDA Prospective Planting Report in March estimated that producers in the U.S. intend to plant approximately 83.5 million acres of soybeans in 2025, which would be down 3.6 million acres from last year. The USDA monthly Supply & Demand Report released earlier this week estimated national soybean production at 4.34 billion bushels, which would be slightly down 26 million bushels from last year.
About 48% of the U.S. soybeans and 52% of the soybeans in Minnesota were planted as of May 11th. In Minnesota, that is 15% more than last year, but still 8% behind the 5-year average. One interesting phenomenon this spring was that there were many producers that wanted to plant soybeans before corn, at least through about the 3rd week of April. There are some theories out there that soybeans can handle cold soils better and early planted beans can produce a higher yield. Time will tell, but we still have not seen the benefit of soybeans planted before April 20th to have much of a yield advantage compared to anything planted earlier than that date. Soybean emergence has been excellent for the most part, especially with the recent warm weather.
Figure 3 – Here are soybeans just emerging from the soil. As you can see, the seedlings push through the cracks to emerge from the soil.
REMARKS: There continues to be a lot of items throughout the world affecting the grain markets. The number one variable is the continued increases in crop production in South America. This year, the estimated corn production out of Brazil and Argentina is 180 Million Metric Tons (MMT). This is about 7 billion bushels, which is just under 50% of the amount of corn produced in the U.S.), but almost double the production from ten years ago. Soybean production is estimated to be 218 MMT. This is about 8 billion bushels, which is also double the production from these two countries from 10 years ago.
The various tariffs and thus retaliation tariffs have certainly had an impact on the commodity markets. For instance, the tariffs with China could have major implications for future soybean trade, as we observed back in 2018 and 2019. That being said, the U.S. does not generally export many soybeans to China between now and October, so there could be some time for negotiations and hopefully a better trade platform for the U.S. in the future. That being said, based upon the previous paragraph, there are a lot more bushels of corn and soybeans available from South America to export to China now and it appears that trend will increase into the future.
Cash corn prices are around $4.25 per bushel, which is down about 25 cents per bushel in the past few weeks. Last year at this time, cash corn prices were about $4.50 per bushel. Soybean prices have been surprisingly firm yet this spring, despite the fast planting pace and concerns about exports/tariffs. Keep in mind as mentioned earlier, U.S. acreage is projected to be less than last year. Cash soybean prices are just below $10.00 per bushel, which is down about $1.50 per bushel at this point last year.
We collected cash rent in early March and made the distributions to our clients, processed income tax paperwork and payments, and paid the first half of the 2025 real estate taxes. We finalized crop insurance policies in mid-March and are already starting to certify acreage with the Farm Service Agency (FSA). As part of a $10 billion disaster relief package approved at the end of 2024, applications were completed for our clients that were eligible for the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) and the payments have been received. These payments equal about 85% of $42/acre for each acre of corn and $29/acre for each acre planted to soybeans in 2024. The balance could be paid out in the future IF there are still funds available. There is also another $20 billion of disaster relief funds being administered through the FSA this summer. It was just announced that the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program will address revenue losses for crop producers for weather event in 2023 and 2024. The sign-up for this program will likely begin mid-to-late summer, after crop certification begins.
Because of the early planting and favorable conditions, we have been conducting some Mid Contract Maintenance (MCM) in the land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and reconstructing some waterways. We have had a lot of communication the past 6-8 months with our clients and developers with respect to potential wind and solar projects in SWMN in the future. Overall, there continues to be a lot of things happening here at Fairland and we look forward to working with you again this cropping season and keeping you informed along the way!
Figure 4 – This is a bulldozer that is moving soil at the end of April to reshape a waterway. Because of the extensive rainfall last June and dry conditions last fall/this spring, it has been a good opportunity to reshape/seed some existing waterways.
Growing-Degree Days
| May 1, 2025 to DATE INDICATED | TOTAL GROWING DEGREE DAYS | DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL | |
| LOCATION Lamberton |
May 12, 2025 | 163 | +58 |
Corn Growing Degree Days are calculated by subtracting a 50 degree base temperature from the average of the maximum and minimum temperature for the day. The daily maximum is limited to 86 degrees and the minimum is 50 degrees.
Grain Markets (May 15, 2025)
| New Vision-Windom | Magnolia | POET Ethanol-Bingham Lake | Minnesota Soybean Processors- Brewster | |
| Cash-Corn | 4.41 | 4.24 | 4.25 | N/A |
| Cash-Soybeans | 9.92 | 10.13 | N/A | 10.36 |
| October-2025-Corn | 4.04 | 4.01 | 4.08 | N/A |
| October-2025-Soybeans | 9.61 | 9.66 | N/A | 9.95 |
Rainfall (Inches):
| County | City | April 11 – May 14, 2025 | March 15 to date-2025 | March 15 to date-2024 |
| Cottonwood | Jeffers | 1.8 | 4.0 | 7.3 |
| Cottonwood | Windom | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Jackson | Heron Lake | 2.4 | 5.0 | 9.2 |
| Jackson | Jackson | 2.1 | 4.5 | 9.4 |
| Martin | Trimont | 2.4 | 4.8 | 8.7 |
| Murray | Fulda | 2.2 | 4.8 | 9.0 |
| Murray | Slayton |
1.3 |
3.6 | 7.2 |
| Nobles | Round Lake | 2.2 | 4.9 | 10.9 |
| Nobles | Rushmore | 2.0 | 4.7 | 10.8 |
| Rock | Magnolia | 1.5 | 3.4 | 10.3 |
| Watonwan | Darfur | 2.7 | 5.1 | 9.0 |
Klay D. Walinga
President, General Manager
Real Estate Broker
Accredited Farm Manager